Tuesday, January 31, 2017

US Dollar Trade for February 2017 (Maybe Longer)

I have been long the dollar for the past several months, and it has been a trade. On the way up, I used the 100 level on the dollar index as both a target level for the initial run-up, and as a support level for the second leg of the trade.

Well its official folks, I'm calling the (temporary) end to the long dollar trade. I say temporary because there are some longer-term macro fundamentals that are at work, that will over time provide support to the US dollar versus its major trade counterparts. But for now, it seems that the most influential factor in determining the direction of the US dollar, and by extent the world economy is Donald Trump.

My trade idea is to short the US dollar from current levels, with a target of 97.0 for the index. From that level I expect sideways movement in the dollar with a relatively wide range. Representing a band of uncertainty outside of which a clear direction can be discerned. Good luck.

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