It’s that time of year again. When traders tally up their progress so far, and like it or not it’s almost time to close the books on another year. Barring the proverbial ‘Hail Mary’ trade that can undo a year’s worth of portfolio damage, it’s time to ride the setting sun on 2014.
The Dollar has done well for the longs so far, which in the current global macroeconomic environment led me to question whether the strength has been home-grown or a default outcome of weakness everywhere else in a previous blog. The Federal Reserve has led the conversation among central bankers around the globe as it balances its dual mandate in an environment that is not leaving it with too many clear directions to take monetary policy into. In times of this level of uncertainty, the one safe bet has been (and will continue to be for some time) the US dollar.
In the intermediate however, there are some technical aspects of financial markets, the currency market included that are over-exerted at current levels. The trends I’m referring to, to be certain will resume as there are fundamental underpinnings that drive them, but as the old adage goes, “nothing goes up or down in a straight line”.
As I’m writing this and referring back to my trading platform the Dollar Index (/DX) is at around 85.6, but my target for year’s end is around the 83.0 level; not very far for the index itself but significant all the same from its components and other major US trading partners.
Starting in Asia, from its current level of 0.88, I have a target of 0.92 for the Australian Dollar. From its current level of 108.0, I have a target of 103.5 for the Japanese Yen. Moving into Europe, from its current level of 1.27, I have a target of 1.32 for the Euro. From its current level of 0.95, I have a target of 0.92 for the Swiss Franc. From its current level of 1.61, I have a target of 1.65 for the Pound Sterling. And finally to the Americas, from its current level of 1.21, I have a target of 1.08 for the Canadian Dollar.